The Weatherman Phenomenon — How smart people become dumber, while looking smarter.
Is there a bigger fraudster in society than he who presumes to predict the weather? Let's unpack that today, building on what we first discussed with the U-Curve of Certainty Theory and complex systems. An angry rant about Weathermen (or Weather People, to be more PC). It was New Year’s Eve. I can’t remember the year, what I can remember is the weather forecast — the weatherman said there was a ‘0% chance of rain.’ Not 2%, not 1%, but 0%. You can probably see where this is going. Come New Year’s Eve, it rained. What a bizarre profession, where you can get away with
Applying Antifragile and Nassim Taleb’s Ideas to Education, Learning and Career
Okay this blog post is not like the usual stuff you get from me — it will probably require patience and note-taking. It corresponds with a mini-series on the With Joe Wehbe Podcast to do with Nassim Nicholas Taleb, whose books are pretty hard to read especially for young people! Check out the podcast here — the Taleb series starts from episode 181. I want to spend time on the podcast unpacking great thinkers about education, learning and careers and I wanted to start with Taleb. Taleb is a very entertaining, intellectually sassy figure known in particular for his epic books and ideas
Stacking the Upside — have you made the most of your opportunity?
Stacking the upside is a principle that has been central to my life for the last four to five years. The 'upside' is what you stand to gain in a situation — stacking it means piling up what you will gain. I'll give you examples below from my own personal business, learning, education and career journeys. The next examples are just to ensure that the basics are clear. If you were going to choose between two properties to buy as an investment, one which is expected to grow in value at 5% per year, and another at 10%, the one with 10%